مهرداد نیک پی

Abstract

Foresight in platform businesses helps identify future trends, predict technological changes and consumer behavior. This allows platforms to develop flexible strategies and prepare themselves for future challenges and opportunities. As a result, foresight helps create a sustainable competitive advantage and ensure the long-term growth of platforms. This research aims to foresight exchange platform businesses in Iran. The present study is a descriptive-interpretative study in terms of its purpose in the field of applied studies and, based on its nature and method, is conducted with a foresight approach. The statistical population of this study includes experts in the field of digital businesses. The sampling was purposeful, non-random, deliberate and judgmental, and ۱۰ university professors who are proficient in digital businesses and experts in the field of platform businesses were selected as samples. The data collection tool includes a review of relevant literature, interviews, and a questionnaire provided to experts. This research was conducted in several consecutive stages, including the census of drivers of exchange platform businesses in Iran, the screening of themes, prioritization of exchange platform businesses in Iran based on importance and uncertainty, and finally scenario creation. Based on the results of the census of semi-structured interviews, fifteen key drivers that are effective in the development of platform businesses were identified, including the advancement of digital innovations, the appropriateness of laws, regulation, governance and political issues, changes in the business environment, investment, monetary and exchange policies, laws, management factors, lifestyle changes, changing consumer behavior, increased connectivity, demographic changes, growth of the sharing economy, and environmental sustainability concerns. The results of ranking the drivers, considering both the criteria of importance and uncertainty, showed that governance and political issues have the highest priority; Investment and regulatory drivers are the second and third priorities, respectively. Based on the findings, four scenarios were developed based on the technological, economic, social, political, and environmental status of the country, which are: ۱) the “strong lion” scenario (high investment and stable governance) - a symbol of power and dominance over the situation; ۲) the “migratory bird” scenario (high investment and unstable governance) - a symbol of constant movement and change; ۳) the “waterfall” scenario (low investment and stable governance) - a symbol of continuous flow and stability; and ۴) the “iceberg” scenario (low investment and unstable governance) - a symbol of hidden problems below the surface.

Keywords: platform businesses, transaction platforms, governance, investment, foresight